Why Are People Leaving California? The 2026 Numbers

Why are people leaving California? The short answer

People leaving California are mostly trading expensive housing for cheaper housing. Los Angeles, the Bay Area and San Diego have the three highest median listings of the ten big-city metros we track as places people leave, and a family that moves to any city in our comparison table below cuts the monthly payment on a median home by at least 41%. Taxes and job growth play a part too. Here is what the numbers say, and where leaving California actually saves money.

How many people are leaving California

In 2024, 661,205 Californians moved to another state, the largest domestic outmigration of any state^source. More than 400,000 people moved in from other states over the same period^source, so California loses on net. The Census Bureau's population estimates, which use a different method and run July to July, show the same pattern every year:

Net domestic migration is people who moved in from other states minus people who moved out. US Census Bureau estimates via the Maryland Department of Planning; 2024-25 is Vintage 2025.

The loss peaked at 470,759 in 2020-21 and has eased since, but 2024-25 was still larger than 2015-16's 122,220. Most of it comes from the big coastal metros: Los Angeles, the Bay Area and San Diego together lost 184,396 residents to other US metros on net between July 2024 and July 2025^source.

Reason one: housing costs

The median listed home in California was $725,000 in September 2026, against $419,250 nationally. In the coastal metros it is higher still:

• Los Angeles: $1,034,500 median listing, about $5,685 a month in principal and interest; housing index 170.4, where the US average is 100; median 2-bedroom rent $2,328.
• San Francisco Bay Area: $957,475 median listing, about $5,262 a month in principal and interest; housing index 194.7, where the US average is 100; median 2-bedroom rent $2,766.
• San Diego: $888,450 median listing, about $4,882 a month in principal and interest; housing index 179.3, where the US average is 100; median 2-bedroom rent $2,483.

Listings: Realtor.com via FRED, September 2026. Payment: 20% down at 7.32%, before taxes and insurance. Housing index: BEA regional price parities, 2024. Rent: Census ACS, 2025.

Residents feel it. In a February 2023 statewide survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, 45% of Californians said housing costs had made them seriously consider moving^source. Renters do not escape it: the five highest median 2-bedroom rents in the Census data we use are all California metros, led by San Jose, San Francisco and San Diego (Census ACS, 2025).

Reason two: taxes

• Income tax: graduated, topping out at 13.3% in 2026 (13.3% applies to taxable income over $1,000,000 (single filer), per Tax Foundation.). ^source
• Sales tax: 7.25% state rate. 7.25% is the total statewide base rate, which includes a 1.25% local portion. Counties, cities and towns may add one or more district taxes, each ranging from 0.10% to 2.00%. The CDTFA page states no combined cap.^source
• Property tax: an average effective rate of 0.7%.^source
• Social Security: not taxed by the state.

California's 13.3% top rate applies only above $1,000,000 of taxable income for a single filer, so most households pay a lower rate. The bigger tax change for a typical family is moving to a state that does not tax wages at all: Texas, Tennessee and Florida all fall in that group. One honest counterpoint: California's average effective property tax rate of 0.7% is low, and Texas's is 1.49%^source. A Californian who buys in Texas trades an income tax bill for a bigger property tax bill.

Reason three: a slower job market

The Los Angeles metro had 6,282,100 nonfarm jobs in September 2026, up 0.5% from a year earlier, and an unemployment rate of 4.8% (preliminary). The largest sectors by jobs are education and health services (1,340,700); trade, transportation, and utilities (1,047,900); and professional and business services (975,500). ^source

Los Angeles still has more than 6 million jobs, and remote work lets some people keep a California salary after they leave. That combination, a coastal paycheck and a lower-cost mortgage, is what makes the math work.

Where Californians move

Texas is the top destination by a wide margin. In 2024, 77,161 Californians moved to Texas, the largest flow between any two states, and 52,383 moved to Arizona^source. Nevada took about 53,300^source. California was the top source of new residents for Arizona, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Texas and Washington, and the top supplier of domestic movers to Tennessee (Associated Press, January 2026, on the Census Bureau's 2024 state-to-state flows).

Phoenix and Las Vegas are not in our city data yet, so the table below covers the destinations we track with full cost records.

Best places to move from California, by monthly cost

Here is what the median home costs each month in the cities we track, against $5,685 for the median Los Angeles metro home.

Median listed home: Realtor.com via FRED, September 2026. Monthly payment: principal and interest with 20% down at 7.32% (Freddie Mac, week of October 22, 2026), before taxes and insurance. Rent: median gross rent for a 2-bedroom, utilities included (Census ACS, 2025). Price level: BEA regional price parities, 2024, US = 100.

Renters save less than buyers but still save: the median Los Angeles 2-bedroom rents for $2,328 against $1,836 in Austin and $1,452 in Knoxville. Every destination in the table also has a lower overall price level than Los Angeles at 113.6.

Leaving the Bay Area or San Diego

The savings are even larger from the Bay Area, where BEA's housing index is 194.7, almost double the national 100 and the highest of the ten big-city metros we track as places people leave. Principal and interest on the median Bay Area home come to about $5,262 a month; in Tampa the same math gives $2,118, a gap of about $37,726 a year. San Diego's median listing of $888,450 puts its monthly payment at $4,882, and its median 2-bedroom rent of $2,483 is higher than Los Angeles's. Bay Area renters gain the most of the three metros: the median 2-bedroom there rents for $2,766, against $1,861 in Tampa (Census ACS, 2024).

What you give up

The trade-offs are real, and they differ by destination:

• Heat. July highs average 96.6°F in Austin and above 90°F in Raleigh, Charlotte, Nashville and Tampa (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
• Winter. Boise averages 17.6 inches of snow a year and January lows of 25.5°F (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
• Property tax. Texas's effective rate is 1.49%, against California's 0.7%. Tennessee (0.5%) and North Carolina (0.66%) are closer to California^source.
• Pay. If you take a local job instead of keeping a California one, compare the actual offer, not just home prices. A lower salary eats into the housing savings.

Is leaving California worth it?

For a family that can keep a California income through remote work, the numbers are hard to argue with: the median Austin home costs $3,232 a month less to finance than the median Los Angeles home, and the median home in Tampa saves $3,567. For a family whose income depends on a local California job, the case is weaker, because a lower salary eats into the savings. Start with your metro: moving from Los Angeles, moving from San Francisco or moving from San Diego, or see the statewide picture on our moving from California page. To narrow the list by what matters to you, take the quiz, and when you are ready, our step-by-step guide to moving to another state covers the sequence.